Carriers secured their first rate gains in 2025 as they pushed through the 1 April GRI. However, the tentative capacity cuts led by MSC and OCEAN Alliance are not matched by Gemini and Premier Alliance which will continue to test the carriers’ resolve to enforce capacity discipline amidst growing concerns over weakening cargo demand as the new Trump tariffs loom.
Weariness over constant changes in US trade policy have pushed shippers to conclude the new transpacific contracts with a small increase over last year’s contracts including provisions for surcharges to cover the proposed levies on Chinese built ships calling at US ports. However, the outlook remains uncertain with cargo demand in March failing behind last year’s level as the weakness is expected to persist for the rest of this year.
Johnson Leung
Global container cargo volumes set to drop by 1.1% in 2025 on trade war concerns
Following a strong start in the first 2 months of the year, container cargo demand has fallen back in March with the volume rebound after the Chinese New Year failing to materialise. Current projections suggest full year container volumes will drop by 1.1% in 2025, as the muted cargo demand is expected to last through the summer peak season.
The demand outlook for the rest of this year remains uncertain, with the threat of additional US tariffs that will be unveiled on 2 April expected to further dampen container trade volumes. The USTR 301 hearings on the proposed levies on carriers that are operating ships built in China concluded last week with a revised proposal expected to be announced b the end of April.
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