The outcome of the US presidential elections will drive further instability in the container markets, with US imports poised to rise ahead of the potential imposition of new tariffs. Based on data collected since 2018, the cargo front loading could raise US container imports by as much as 10% to 15% in the next 3 months. Although this will drive up freight rates in the short term, the longer term impact of any trade war on global container volumes will be negative even though US import tariffs imposed since 2018 has done nothing to reduce the US container trade deficit and the growing dependence of container imports.
Container freight futures are predicting further freight rate erosion in 2025 once the initial front loading ends, coupled with an earlier end to the Red Sea crisis given the imminent change in the US administration.
Linerlytica
US import tariffs failed to narrow container trade deficit
The US container trade imbalance has worsened in the last 6 years since the first round of trade tariffs were introduced in 2018. Total US laden container imports outnumber laden exports by a factor of 2.4 times in 2024 compared to 1.8 times in 2018. Over the same period, average monthly imports have risen by 18% while exports have decreased by 10%, with the number of empty containers repositioned out from US rising by 39%.
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