Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s increased their full year profit guidance on the back of stronger than expected 3Q performance, but their operating margins continue to lag behind their Asian peers who are expected to post superior EBIT margins when final 3Q numbers are released starting with ONE later this week. The improved earnings outlook failed to lift TS Line’s IPO’s price with the company’s shares to start trading in Hong Kong this week at less than 50% of book value.
Th SCFI rebounded by 6% ahead of the planned 1 November rate hikes but cracks have already appeared with further discounting expected in the coming week as carriers are still unwilling to curb capacity deployment to support the GRI. Cargo demand has not recovered with volume indices to Europe and the US still declining while there is no evidence of front loading ahead of potential US tariff hikes and the threat of a second ILA strike on the East Coast.
Linerlytica
Transpacific volumes set to tumble next year
Further turmoil on the transpacific market is expected next year with potential US import tariff hikes dampening the buoyant demand that has seen eastbound container volumes from Asia to the US jump by 14.7% in the first 9 months of 2024. US imports have been particularly strong in the 3rd quarter, with average monthly volumes matching the COVID peaks in 2021-2022.
Imports from Vietnam have increased by 26%, with its share of US imports from the Far East reaching 14% compared to just 5% a decade ago. Most of these gains have come at China’s expense with the latter’s share slipping from 72% in 2014 to 59%.
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