Container freight rates have dropped continuously in the past 3 month with the SCFIS Shanghai to North Europe index down by 65% from its peak in July but EC freight futures for December are now trading at a 45% premium to the current spot rates, indicating an imminent inflection point for the freight market.
Although freight rates are expected to reverse their declines in November as carriers implement a new series of rate hikes, the sustainability of the higher rates remains in question with carriers showing no efforts to cut capacity to match slack season demand. Despite the record high vessel deliveries this year, charter rates have remained resilient in spite of the recent freight rate corrections with carriers still competing furiously for tonnage and forward fixtures are now extended into the 4th quarter of 2025. The next 4 weeks will provide clearer indications if the carriers’ bullishness is justified as the market heads into the critical 2025 contract negotiation season.
Linerlytica
New containership deliveries hit new high
Year to date new containership deliveries have already surpassed last year’s record of 2.3m teu with 2.5m teu already handed over this year and a further 0.5m teu is still due to be delivered before the year is over. Full year fleet growth is expected to reach 10.1% with limited scrapping and delivery slippage. Just 78,200 teu have been scrapped so far this year, with the current run rate at less than 5,000 teu deleted each month as the strong demand for elderly ships have kept them away from the scrapyards. Fleet growth is expected to drop in the next 2 years
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