Markets/Trades

Containerised cargo imports into the US from Asia have continued to grow over the last 7 years despite the introduction of US import tariffs since 2018. Overall cargo growth grew by 3.5% on a compounded basis between 2017 and 2024 with all Asian origins recording positive cargo growth, including China that posted growth of 0.8% during the period. Although China’s share of total US imports from Asia decreased from 70.4% in 2017 to 58.9% in 2024, it remains the largest origin country of containe

EC traders are disappointed by Maersk's lack of further action to increase freight rates over the past two days. While Hapag-Lloyd has become the first to announce its intention to raise freight rates to $8,000–$9,000 per FEU starting December 15, Maersk is already quoting lower freight rates for shipments departing after that date compared to those leaving now. The rates for each departure date have been reduced by 3% to 13% since November 30. Utilization is holding steady but remains 1.5 perce

The SCFI released after the market close last Friday jumped by 22% week-over-week but remains below the current price of EC2412, implying $5,500 per FEU. While the overall SCFI index tends to follow its own trend, SCFI Europe does not show the same sensitivity to trends. In the past 15 years, the SCFI Europe has rallied over 20% week-over-week 46 times, with 28 of those rallies followed by a decline the following week. Utilization for most vessels that departed over the weekend tracked below t

The EC2412 and EC2502 experienced a gap down at the open but have since recovered some of their losses, as EC traders maintain hopes for a freight rate increase this weekend. Contrary to the consensus in the EC market, we believe that the December 1st rate increase is unlikely, as liners are still quoting rates below $4,000 per FEU for shipments departing on November 30. The moving average utilization rate has improved slightly, aided by the fully loaded MADISON MAERSK that departed Tanjung Pel

EC contracts are mostly up 1-3% on thin volume this morning. There are no long buyers, and short sellers are hesitant to place their bets before the imminent release of the SCFI, which is expected after the market closes tomorrow. If the online quotations from the liners are accepted by any shippers, the SCFI is projected to jump by 37% this week (from 2,481 to 3,400). However, we doubt that the SCFI panel, which includes a large group of forwarders from China in addition to the international l

EC market range bounce this morning after two consecutive days of sell-offs. Liners are still cutting their target freight rates increase over the past two days that now they are aiming to lift the freight rates to high $5,000 per FEU instead of $6,000 per FEU as previously planned for Far East - North Europe shipments embarking after 1 December. The spot freight rate for shipments embarking this week is about $4,000 per FEU, far from the $5,500 per FEU that the liners planned to achieve. Latest

Container freight futures for February 2025 contracts came under heavy selling pressure as it hit the maximum daily limit down of 16% on 25 November on high trading volumes due to rising fears of a Middle East ceasefire as container rates are expected to falter further by February due to the post-Lunar New Year slack. The current EC2502 price of 2,722 still suggests freight rates around $4,000 per FEU. The December 2024 contracts continue to be supported by carriers’ planned December rate hikes

The SCFI and SCFIS continues to move in opposite directions for the 3rd straight week with the SCFI continuing to retreat while the SCFIS remains in ascendance. Actual settled rates reflected in the SCFIS are still catching up with the full effects of the initial November rate hike, while carriers’ current quotations in the SCFI reflects the recent rate weakness as carriers scale back from their initial $4,500/feu asking rate to the current benchmark of $4,000/feu. However, the SCFI is expecte

EC main contracts are down this morning, as data released over the past few days does not support an imminent 50% increase in freight rates for the FE-North Europe route. Since our last Daily CoFIF on November 22, 2024, liners have been reducing their online quotations. While utilization for alliance services remains high at 97%, consistent with the year-to-date average, the overall average utilization has been trending downward after reaching a recent peak last week.

While the moving average utilization for vessels departing from the Far East remains high, the AE55's MSC TESSA, which departed yesterday, registered only 91% utilization—7 percentage points below the moving average. Far East - North Europe Head Haul Vessel UtilizationSince our last Daily CoFIF on November 14, the liners have reduced their quotes for November shipments while increasing their quotes for December shipments, which does not inspire much confidence in the December 1 GRI.