Markets/Trades

Transpacific freight rates have latched on to the Red Sea turmoil and the expected shortage of capacity in January especially on the East Coast services which have been affected by the Panama Canal restrictions as well as the Suez diversions to the Cape route. Rates to the West Coast have not gained as much in comparison, with capacity still open on all corridors as existing WC capacity is not affected by the Suez diversions, although carriers could still shift some capacity to Europe on accoun

Maersk’s statement over the weekend that it is planning to resume Red Sea transits sent both liner equities and forward CoFIF contracts into retreat on 25 December after a banner week for both markets last week. CoFIF futures for April surged by 55% last week while daily turnover averaged nearly $4.9bn and Open Interests reached $2bn. The latest SCFIS assessment on 25 December on the Asia-North Europe route surged by 21.7% following  its 5.4% rise the week before. The SCFIS, which is the underl

The number of containerships diverted from the Suez to the Cape Route has surged to 125 units compared to 44 a week ago, including 16 ships that turned back in the Red Sea to the Med after making their southbound Suez passage. The record number of diversions far exceeds the number of ships that were diverted during the EVER GIVEN incident on the Suez Canal in March 2021 when less than 20 ships were diverted. While the previous Suez blockage in 2021 lasted barely 7 days, the impact of the current

Transpacific freight rates rose across the board on continued market disruptions that have boosted carriers’ rate hike efforts. Delays at the Panama canal are starting to affect OCEAN Alliance ships as well, with THE Alliance ships already forced to divert to the Suez and Cape routes. This has reduced the capacity available for the USEC, with the situation only expected to ease from mid-January. MSC has redeployed 19,000 teu ships to its FE-USWC service, with capacity to the West Coast current

CoFIF traders took profit last week with near-term contracts gaining favour over the longer dated contracts despite of the 25% jump in the SCFIS index last week. The mood turned bullish again following the Red Sea disruptions over the weekend, which sent all CoFIF contracts to their daily limit up on 18 Dec, forcing a trading halt for the first time since CoFIF was launched in August. Rates are expected to strengthen in the coming week until the Red Sea situation is resolved.

The withdrawal of Israeli owned and operated ships from the Red Sea routes have started, with 42 Israeli-linked ships rerouted away from the Suez over the past 3 weeks. 20 of these ships on the Asia-Med and North Europe routes have been diverted to the longer route via the Cape of Good Hope while another 22 ships have been redeployed to other trades that avoids the Red Sea. Of note, 5 Zodiac Maritime-owned ships of 19,460 teu operated MSC have been redeployed from FE-Europe to the FE-USWC Jaguar

The Panama Canal disruptions failed to stop rates to the US East Coast from slipping last week, with THE Alliance carriers the main casualties from the reduced transit slots. 2M and OCEAN Alliance services are not affected as yet with only minimal delays on their Panama services. East Coast capacity remains sufficient to meet market demand despite  draft restrictions that has limited full container intake for the Panama passage. Rates to the West Coast rose slightly last week but uneven utiliza

For a day last Tuesday CoFIF traders were disappointed about the SCFIS print issued after Monday (5 Dec) close. CoFIF went nearly limit down at the open while bottom fishers helped reduced the daily losses to 2-3% for the day. But starting from Wednesday, news of $3000/ 40’ GRI, several times of the going spot rates, announced by CMA CGM and MSC brought back the animal spirit among the CoFIF traders. By week close the CoFIF contracts were testing their track record high in September. For second

The turmoil at both ends of the Suez and Panama passage have forced containerships to divert from their regular routes, as ships linked to Israeli interests are avoiding the Red Sea passage through the Suez Canal even as some of the neo-panamax ships on the Far East-US East routes are shifting to the Suez route to avoid the congested Panama Canal. While these moves will help to absorb some of the surplus ships, the impact is limited at this stage as it affects less than 2% of the overall fleet.

The rise in the SCFI rates to the US West Coast masks rapidly deteriorating conditions on the route, with utilization levels falling to 81%. The “Express” services have performed poorly including the Zim e-Commerce Express (ZEX) that was only half full on its first 2 sailings following its relaunch in November. Rates to the East Coast are performing better despite a similar drop in capacity utilization, with carriers able to  secure premiums due to the Panama congestion even with transit times