The main EC freight futures contracts for December 2024 (EC2412) tumbled by 23% over the past week on high trading volumes. Carriers continued to slash FAK rates to North Europe, with market sentiment remaining bearish. Contrarian views are providing support for EC2410 on the belief that October contracts have been oversold at its current 52% discount to the SCFIS. Open interests increased by 11% WoW, indicating the high conviction that traders have on their positions.
The pace of the SCFI and SCFIS declines continued to accelerate last week with the SCFI assessment to North Europe falling by 11.9% while the SCFIS that came out after market close on 2 Sep dropped by 6.9% following the previous week’s 7.3% decline. Carriers continue to cut their spot rates, with average FAK quotations falling below $6,000/FEU with carriers giving up all the rate gains secured since June this year. Asia-North Europe volumes are down 5% from their peak, with average capacity uti
EC freight futures will come under further pressure this week after the SCFIS was published after market close on 26 August with a sharp 7.3% WoW drop, against the 2.3% WoW decline last week. The drop was worse than traders’ expectations as futures prices had rallied last week on stalled Gaza peace talks and the relatively mild drop in the SCFIS on 19 Aug of just 2.3%. Carriers continue to slash rates last week, with average rate quotations from Shanghai to North Europe falling from $8,500/FEU
Container freight rates are poised to fall by over 70% by June next year, based on the latest CoFIF EC contracts traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE). Although the drop is not as severe as the freight rate collapse seen at the end of 2022, current freight futures prices anticipate continuous declines over the coming 12 months, with no rebound expected at the end of this year and no repeat of this year’s post Chinese New Year rate rally in 2025. Carriers have failed to che
Continued spot rate weakness and renewed Gaza ceasefire talks brought the longer dated EC futures contracts down to their daily limit on 19 August. EC2408 contracts held up with the SCFIS falling by less than expected, down by 2.3% WoW after market close. EC2410 also largely held its ground as the October contracts are already trading at a 48% discount to current spot rates. The latest EC2410 closing price has built in weekly drops of 7% each week over the next 2 months against the SCFIS’ 1-2%
Freight futures to North Europe dropped across the board last week, with US recession concerns weighing negatively on market sentiment. The emergence of some sub-$8,000/feu quotations for shipments departing in second half of August for Asia-North Europe route triggered a fresh round of sell-offs for the EC2410 contracts last Thursday, as the rate erosion appears to be accelerating even though capacity to North Europe remains tight. Preliminary vessel utilization for the Asia-North Europe route
Freight futures contracts retreated across the board on volatile trading last week. The near-term contracts led the decline for most of last week before the longer dated contracts caught on 5 Aug on the US recession fears. Trading volumes are shifting from EC2410 to the later contracts with EC2504 gaining the most market interest. Based on the EC2408 and EC2410 latest closing prices, the futures market is pricing in a 4.46% decline each week in the next 3 weeks to the end of August, to be follo
The October futures contracts rose sharply with the longer dated contracts trading limit up on 29 July to hit the maximum daily limit of 16%, ending its 3 week losing streak. Trading sentiment were boosted by the smaller than expected drop in the SCFI assessment for North Europe on 26 July with carriers largely able to hold the rates. Although the SCFIS Europe index that was published after market close on 29 July recorded its first WoW drop of 1.5% after 13 consecutive weekly gains, traders are
All EC freight futures retreated last week on concerns that market rates have peaked, with the escalation in the Middle East crisis over the weekend doing little to reverse the negative trading sentiment. Apart from the August 2024 contract, all of the other contracts dropped by double digits. The SCFIS defied market expectations and recorded a 5% WoW gain after market close on 22 July which could lift the August contracts for the rest of this week but the near term sentiment continues to be fo
More signs of Asia Europe freight rates being peaked has emerged: 5 out of the 7 departures from Far East to North Europe over the last few days were below trend and the latest trend (on 2-week moving average) has been below the average of the past year. AE10 MAYVIEW MAERSK Departed Tanjung Pelepas on 17 July was only 79.41% full comparing to the 2-week moving average of 94.9%. FE4 HMM GARAM departed Singapore on 16 July was only 90.7% full, comparing to the 2-week moving average of 94.3%. T